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Taught by Ofer Regev — a PM who ships with AI.

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  • Overview
  • Idea to MVP
    • idea-to-mvp
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    • pm-pmf-signal
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← Part of Idea to MVP

pm-pmf-signal

Use when defining how you'll know product-market fit has been reached — PMF survey, retention target, go/no-go threshold — or when 10-customer-discovery.md exists but no PMF signal plan yet. Step 11, final, of the idea-to-mvp flow (Lean PMF search).

idea-to-mvp
View on GitHub ↗

Install this skill

/plugin marketplace add oferregev81pt/ai-pm-skills/plugin install idea-to-mvp@ai-pm-skills

Step 11 — PMF Signal

Different question from step 7. 07-validation.md asks "did we build the MVP right, and what would kill it before launch?" This step asks "once real people are using it, how do we know we've found product-market fit?"

Prerequisites

Read 00-status.md, 06-mvp-scope.md, 07-validation.md, and 10-customer-discovery.md if its synthesis exists. Missing 07-validation.md → offer to run pm-validation first, or proceed with an explicit Gap: no prior north-star metric note with the PM's consent.

Drafting instructions (dispatch to a subagent when available, else inline)

Draft:

  • PMF survey plan — the Sean Ellis question ("how would you feel if you could no longer use <product>?" very disappointed / somewhat disappointed / not disappointed), who to send it to (active users only, minimum usage threshold), and the 40%-very-disappointed pass bar.
  • Retention target — a cohort retention curve/number appropriate to the product category, reusing 07's north-star metric as the retained behavior wherever possible instead of inventing a second metric.
  • Qualitative signals — organic referrals, inbound demand, usage outpacing marketing spend; drawn from 10's synthesis where it exists.
  • Go/no-go threshold — the specific combination of the above that means "we have PMF, invest further" vs. "we don't, revisit the canvas."
  • PM reaction loop — questions one at a time

    1. If the survey came back at 25% very disappointed, would you actually stop and revisit the canvas — or rationalize past it?
    2. Is the retention target realistic for this product category, or copied from a different kind of product?
    3. Which qualitative signal, if it showed up, would convince you fastest — and how will you notice it?

    Iterate until approved.

    Output — save to product/<idea-slug>/11-pmf-signal.md

    # PMF Signal — <idea title>
    
    ## PMF survey plan
    ### Question & scale
    ### Audience & minimum usage threshold
    ### Pass bar (40% very disappointed)
    
    ## Retention target
    ### Metric (reused from 07 north-star where possible)
    ### Target curve/number
    
    ## Qualitative signals
    ### Signal
    ### How you'll notice it
    
    ## Go/no-go threshold
    
    ## Open questions
    <unresolved items from this step — pm-prd collects these; write "none" if none>
    

    Append to 00-status.md: - [x] pm-pmf-signal → 11-pmf-signal.md — <one-liner> (<YYYY-MM-DD>)

    Wrap up in chat in 3-4 sentences: where the plan lives, and what "checking PMF" looks like in practice (send the survey once you have real users, revisit the go/no-go threshold on a cadence). The detail lives in the doc.

    ← Previous: pm-customer-discoveryNext: roadmap-prioritizer →